Getting into second Chilly Conflict after COVID-19

Entering second Cold War after COVID-19

The 12 months 2020 has seen the Earth stand nonetheless because the unfold of COVID-19 has pushed nations all through the world into lockdowns and has restricted the motion of society for months. It might sound that the world is at relative peace as industries, companies and authorities places of work shut and other people apply inflexible social and bodily distancing.

That concept, nonetheless, is a false hope. The truth that COVID-19 has contaminated greater than 4.7 million individuals and killed over 300,000 globally as of Could 17 apparently has not stopped among the world’s main powers from persevering with their arch-rivalries.

The US has deployed warships to the South China Sea, launched medium-range missiles and despatched its bomber planes to fly over the waters. Within the East China Sea, Washington deployed USS America, a light-weight plane provider. The US has even made it clear that its nuclear arms and personnel stay ready and prepared within the case of a serious conventional armed battle amongst states.

Equally, China’s assertiveness within the area’s disputed waters stays unabated. In April it introduced two new administrative districts within the Spratly Islands (Fiery Cross Reef) and the Paracel Islands (Woody Island) and named 80 islets and reefs. Moreover, its naval forces proceed to enterprise into the Unique Financial Zones of littoral states alongside the South China Sea.

Learn additionally: US-China confrontation clouds WHO meet centered on pandemic

In the meantime, the US financial system is being ravaged by the pandemic and its army is not any exception. Two US Navy plane carriers, the united statesTheodore Roosevelt and the united statesRonald Reagan have been compelled to return to base after discovering that sailors aboard the ships had been contaminated by COVID-19.

China, however, could begin to push its financial system ahead once more, after efficiently lowering its circumstances of COVID-19, as evinced by its loosening of lockdowns and reopening of cities, companies and industries. However it’s now going through the specter of a second wave of the virus together with the numerous influence of the pandemic on the financial system, together with unemployment and sluggish development.

Over the previous decade, China has grown into one of many world’s most main powers. Its financial system, second solely to the US, supplies important leverage and capital to develop and develop its energy and affect. The Belt and Street Initiative, through which Indonesia is collaborating, is only one instance.

China has additionally modified its naval warfare doctrine right into a blue water navy doctrine with the addition of its two Liaoning-class carriers and a brand new abroad army base in Djibouti in Africa.

The start of the 21st century has additionally seen Washington’s superiority within the international area closely examined. In 2020 alone, within the Persian Gulf, 11 Iranian naval vessels taunted US warships, a Russian fighter jet intercepted the US Navy’s maritime surveillance plane P-8A numerous occasions within the Mediterranean Sea, and within the Taiwan Strait, China despatched its first plane provider, Liaoning, to the waters of Japan, one of many US’ Asian allies.

Learn additionally: US savages WHO because it guarantees pandemic overview, however China pledges $2 billion

Many nations have been questioning US management on the worldwide stage, each earlier than and through this pandemic. This can be the explanation why it’s flexing its muscle tissue and army would possibly within the area in an obvious message to China and the world that the pandemic has not affected its energy and sphere of affect within the area.

These present strategic surroundings dynamics pave the best way for the arrival of a second Chilly Conflict, one between the US and China, when the pandemic is over. The return of the rivalry between nice powers started to materialize with the US-China commerce struggle. The pandemic, throughout which the 2 powers have accused one another of being chargeable for the well being disaster, solely makes issues clearer.

The potential for an armed battle exists if the race between China and the US for affect and hegemony persists within the post-pandemic world. Until peace is given an opportunity, World Conflict III is nearby.

None of those eventualities profit immediately’s globalized world, particularly Indonesia. Its strategic geographical setting locations it on the coronary heart of the US-China rivalry, which is the South China Sea.

From a protection perspective, specifically maritime protection, the escalation of stress between the 2 nice powers in South China Sea and the potential for a spillover of their battle will put Indonesia in peril. For one, the rising stress within the space could intensify the actions of ships, together with fishing boats and coast guard vessels, within the waters of littoral states, together with Indonesia.

Learn additionally: Indonesia steers away from COVID-19 decision ‘politicization’

However, Indonesia’s present and post-pandemic protection price range will understandably diminish as the federal government prioritizes the nation’s financial revival.

Subsequently, Indonesia’s maritime forces, notably the Navy and Coast Guard, ought to assess the impacts of the nice powers rivalry within the South China Sea with a purpose to resolve the precedence of their fleet deployment and projection of energy within the North Natuna Sea.

Moreover, formulating responses to doable worst-case eventualities within the South China Sea will enable Indonesia to make the most of its obtainable power and outline precedence protection spending and army drive deployment.


Professor of maritime protection science on the Indonesia Protection College and former Navy chief of employees (2012-2015)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this article are these of the writer and don’t replicate the official stance of The Jakarta Put up.

If you wish to assist in the battle towards COVID-19, we’ve compiled an up-to-date record of group initiatives designed to help medical employees and low-income individuals on this article. Hyperlink: [UPDATED] Anti-COVID-19 initiatives: Serving to Indonesia battle the outbreak

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